1991~2010年中国小时暴雨时空变化格局及其与城镇化因子的空间相关分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

孔锋  吕丽莉  方建 《气候与环境研究》2017,22(3):355-364

采用1991~2010 年小时降水数据对中国小时暴雨雨量和雨时进行研究。结果表明,在时间上,1991~2010年中国小时暴雨雨量和雨时的年累计值在波动中呈明显增加趋势。在空间上,小时暴雨雨量和雨时的高值区主要集中在中国黑龙江漠河—云南腾冲一线的东部地区,该界线以西则是低值地区,其中小时暴雨变化最为显著地区主要集中在中国东南沿海地区和西北内陆地区。中国白昼和夜晚的小时暴雨雨量和雨时在空间分布上也有类似的规律。在日变化的时间尺度上,小时暴雨雨量和雨时呈现出双峰现象,最高值均出现在17：00（北京时间,下同）,而最低值出现在12：00。同时选择表征城镇化发展水平的夜晚灯光指数、黑炭气溶胶、低能见度日数和细颗粒物（PM2.5）浓度4 个因子,分别与小时暴雨雨量和雨时做空间相关分析。在全国平均水平上,4 个空间相关系数均在波动中呈明显增加趋势;而在中国气候变化区划一级分区上,空间相关系数均呈增加趋势,且增加趋势最为明显的是II 分区和III 分区。  相似文献   

Recent Advances in Predictability Studies in China （1999-2002）   总被引：10，自引：2，他引：8  

MU Mu  DUAN Wansuo  CHOU Jifan 《大气科学进展》2004,21(3):437-443

Since the last International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) General Assembly (1999), the predictability studies in China have made further progress during the period of 1999-2002. Firstly, three predictability sub-problems in numerical weather and climate prediction are classified, which are concerned with the maximum predictability time, the maximum prediction error, and the maximum allowable initial error, and then they are reduced into three nonlinear optimization problems. Secondly, the concepts of the nonlinear singular vector (NSV) and conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) are proposed,which have been utilized to study the predictability of numerical weather and climate prediction. The results suggest that the nonlinear characteristics of the motions of atmosphere and oceans can be revealedby NSV and CNOP. Thirdly, attention has also been paid to the relations between the predictability and spatial-temporal scale, and between the model predictability and the machine precision, of which the investigations disclose the importance of the spatial-temporal scale and machine precision in the study of predictability. Also the cell-to-cell mapping is adopted to analyze globally the predictability of climate,which could provide a new subject to the research workers. Furthermore, the predictability of the summer rainfall in China is investigated by using the method of correlation coefficients. The results demonstrate that the predictability of summer rainfall is different in different areas of China. Analysis of variance, which is one of the statistical methods applicable to the study of predictability, is also used to study the potential predictability of monthly mean temperature in China, of which the conclusion is that the monthly mean temperature over China is potentially predictable at a statistical significance level of 0.10. In addition,in the analysis of the predictability of the T106 objective analysis/forecasting field, the variance and the correlation coefficient are calculated to explore the distribution characteristics of the mean-square errors.Finally, the predictability of short-term climate prediction is investigated by using statistical methods or numerical simulation methods. It is demonstrated that the predictability of short-term climate in China depends not only on the region of China being investigated, but also on the time scale and the atmospheric internal dynamical process.  相似文献   

成都地区一次暴雨诊断分析     

巫俊威  李昕翼  周正斌  张海平 《成都信息工程学院学报》2013,28(4):416-423

针对2012年8月16~19日成都地区出现短时、局地暴雨、特大暴雨的异常强降水天气,利用常规气象资料、1°×1°NCEP再分析资料和客观物理量场、卫星云图等资料,对造成此次强降水主要集中在成都地区西部沿山一带的原因进行了分析。分析得出:在有利的环流背景下,中小尺度系统发生发展和演变是这次暴雨产生的直接原因;中低层维持偏南气流,暖湿气流西进北抬,低空急流为这次暴雨提供了大量的水汽和不稳定能量;中低空的水平风切变不仅为暴雨提供了强烈的辐合上升运动,同时对水汽的水平辐合和垂直输送非常有利;另外,强对流云团的生成、移动与强降水的发生密切相连相关。  相似文献   

The enrichment and removal of arsenic (III) from water samples using HFSLM     

《Physics and Chemistry of the Earth》2012

At specific concentrations oxyanions such as arsenic pose a major threat to human beings and to the environment because of their ability to biomagnify. The World Health Organization has set the drinking water standard at 10 μg l⁻¹ for arsenic. It is in this regard that novel and cheaper methods to detect oxyanions and remove them from the environment are developed. In this work, we have developed sample preparation methods involving solid phase and liquid membrane for the extraction and enrichment of these oxyanions in aqueous environments. Various parameters which govern their optimal extraction and enrichment have been optimised. The manipulation of the liquid membrane extraction process was utilised to selectively extract arsenic (III) which is more toxic as compared to arsenic (V). The liquid membrane consisted of a combination of two organic solvents, and n-undecane and di-n-hexyl ether were used in a combination at various ratios of the two liquid membranes. The means of detection was by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectroscopy (GFAAS) as well as inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectroscopy (ICP-OES). The applicability of the method was tested in real wastewater samples where it was able to remove at least 50% of As (III) with enrichment factors of up to 20.  相似文献   

Some aspects of the development of urbanization on the territory of Yugra     

《Geography and Natural Resources》2008,29(3):263-266

Statistical information was used to develop cartographic models for group systems of settlement on the territory of Yugra. As a result, it as possible to most clearly represent all details of the current spatial pattern of the network of urban settlements in the okrug. The solution of several problems is suggested for improvement and implementation of the concept of sustainable development of urbanized territories, among them agglomerations.  相似文献   

辽宁省雷暴日数的时空变化特征   总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10       下载免费PDF全文

孙丽  于淑琴  李岚  唐亚平  刘晓娜  息涛 《气象与环境学报》2010,26(1):59-53

利用1978—2007年辽宁59个站常规地面观测资料,对雷暴日数的时空变化进行分析。结果表明：辽宁省年平均雷暴日数为28.1 d,在空间分布上呈现从东、西部山区向中部丘陵、平原及沿海地区逐渐递减的特征。1978—2007年雷暴日数总体呈逐渐下降趋势,平均每10 a下降1.2 d;并且有明显的季、月变化,夏季最多,秋季次之,冬季几乎没有发生;3—5月迅速增多,6—8月变化趋于平稳,9—12月迅速减少。雷暴在14—20时发生频率最高,20—02时次之,02—08时最少。雷暴初终间日数平均为175.8 d,最长为295 d,最短为102 d。雷暴初日4月最多,5月次之,3月最少。雷暴终日10月最多,9月次之,12月最少。并呈开始早,结束晚的趋势。  相似文献   

Response to Comment on “Two statistics for evaluating parameter identifiability and error reduction”     

John Doherty  Randall J. Hunt 《Journal of Hydrology》2010,380(3-4):489-496

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On the effects of preferential or barrier flow features on solute plumes in permeable porous media     

《Advances in water resources》2016

Despite that discrete flow features (DFFs, e.g. fractures and faults) are common features in the subsurface, few studies have explored the influence of DFFs on solute plumes in otherwise permeable rocks (e.g. sandstone, limestone), compared to low-permeability rock settings (e.g. granite and basalt). DFFs can provide preferential flow pathways (i.e. ‘preferential flow features’; PFFs), or can act to impede flow (i.e. ‘barrier flow features’; BFFs). This research uses a simple analytical expression and numerical modelling to explore how a single DFF influences the steady-state distributions of solute plumes in permeable aquifers. The analysis quantifies the displacement and widening (or narrowing) of a steady-state solute plume as it crosses a DFF in idealised, 1 × 1 m moderately permeable rock aquifers. Previous research is extended by accounting for DFFs as 2D flow features, and including BFF situations. A range of matrix-DFF permeability ratios (0.01 to 100) and DFF apertures (0.25 mm to 2 cm), typical of sedimentary aquifers containing medium-to-large fractures, are considered. The results indicate that for the conceptual models considered here, PFFs typically have a more significant influence on plume distributions than BFFs, and the impact of DFFs on solute plumes generally increases with increasing aperture. For example, displacement of peak solute concentration caused by DFFs exceeds 20 cm in some PFF cases, compared to a maximum of 0.64 cm in BFF cases. PFFs widen plumes up to 9.7 times, compared to a maximum plume widening of 2.0 times in BFF cases. Plumes crossing a PFF are less symmetrical, and peak solute concentrations beneath PFFs are up to two orders of magnitude lower than plumes in BFF cases. This study extends current knowledge of the attenuating influence of DFFs in otherwise permeable rocks on solute plume characteristics, through evaluation of 2D flow effects in DFFs for a variety of DFF apertures, and by considering BFF situations.  相似文献   

A Gridded Daily Min/Max Temperature Dataset With 0.1° Resolution for the Yangtze River Valley and its Error Estimation     

Qiufen Xiong  Jianglin Hu 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2013,170(5):935-949

The minimum/maximum (Min/Max) temperature in the Yangtze River valley is decomposed into the climatic mean and anomaly component. A spatial interpolation is developed which combines the 3D thin-plate spline scheme for climatological mean and the 2D Barnes scheme for the anomaly component to create a daily Min/Max temperature dataset. The climatic mean field is obtained by the 3D thin-plate spline scheme because the relationship between the decreases in Min/Max temperature with elevation is robust and reliable on a long time-scale. The characteristics of the anomaly field tend to be related to elevation variation weakly, and the anomaly component is adequately analyzed by the 2D Barnes procedure, which is computationally efficient and readily tunable. With this hybridized interpolation method, a daily Min/Max temperature dataset that covers the domain from 99°E to 123°E and from 24°N to 36°N with 0.1° longitudinal and latitudinal resolution is obtained by utilizing daily Min/Max temperature data from three kinds of station observations, which are national reference climatological stations, the basic meteorological observing stations and the ordinary meteorological observing stations in 15 provinces and municipalities in the Yangtze River valley from 1971 to 2005. The error estimation of the gridded dataset is assessed by examining cross-validation statistics. The results show that the statistics of daily Min/Max temperature interpolation not only have high correlation coefficient (0.99) and interpolation efficiency (0.98), but also the mean bias error is 0.00 °C. For the maximum temperature, the root mean square error is 1.1 °C and the mean absolute error is 0.85 °C. For the minimum temperature, the root mean square error is 0.89 °C and the mean absolute error is 0.67 °C. Thus, the new dataset provides the distribution of Min/Max temperature over the Yangtze River valley with realistic, successive gridded data with 0.1° × 0.1° spatial resolution and daily temporal scale. The primary factors influencing the dataset precision are elevation and terrain complexity. In general, the gridded dataset has a relatively high precision in plains and flatlands and a relatively low precision in mountainous areas.  相似文献   

我国中北亚热带优质烤烟烟区气候相似性分析          下载免费PDF全文

鞠英芹  陈正洪  马德栗  袁芳  刘军  曾琦  方怡 《应用气象学报》2022,33(6):736-747

利用1991—2020年我国中北亚热带不同烤烟烟区180个国家级气象站气候因子数据,根据影响优质烟叶生长发育的气候条件,分析气候差异性,探究烟叶生长发育的气象规律,应用主成分分析计算各气候因子的权重,依据气候相似原理,对湖北省两大烟区与周边烟区采用改进的欧氏距离作为相似度量指标,并与系统聚类结果进行相似性对比。结果表明:鄂西南、鄂西北、豫西、豫南、豫中、湘西、湘中烟区基本具备了生产优质烟叶的气候条件,除降水量外,其余各气候因子在不同发育期的差值伸根期最大,旺长期次之,成熟期最小。鄂西北和陕南烟区的气候因子最为接近,鄂西南和湘西、川东南烟区的气候因子具有高度相似性,从而为不同区域间借鉴生产经验、优化烤烟种植布局和开发特色优质烟叶提供理论依据。  相似文献